AHI President’s Note: A good portion of policy formulation in Washington DC is influenced by analysts and academics of think-tank institutions. As a service to our membership and constituency, and to gain an understanding of the position of other entities on our issues, the American Hellenic Institute attends and participates at policy forums or roundtable discussions to ensure the policy positions of the Greek American community are represented.
Accordingly, AHI’s Capital Events is a timely synopsis of recent policy discussions in Washington to keep our members abreast of the latest developments. The content provided in AHI’s Capital Events is for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of AHI.
Atlantic Council
The Biden Administration and Turkey: Transition in bilateral relations?
January 15, 2021
The Atlantic Council IN TURKEY organized a webinar on the future of U.S.-Turkey relations under the Biden administration, January 15, 2021.
The distinguished panel included former Foreign Minister of Spain Ana Palacio, who also is an Atlantic Council Board member; former British ambassador to the U.S., France and Turkey Sir Peter J. Westmacott, who also is an Atlantic Council Future Europe Initiative Distinguished Ambassadorial fellow; former Special Representative for Syria Engagement and the Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS Ambassador James F. Jeffrey, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey; and Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM) Chairman Sinan Ülgen. Former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan and Atlantic Council Eurasia Center and Global Energy Center Nonresident Senior Fellow Matthew J. Bryza moderated the panel. Atlantic Council IN TURKEY Director Defne Sadıklar Arslan served as the host and delivered opening remarks.
Ambassador James Jeffrey expressed concern that throughout his professional career, relations with Turkey had never been as bad as they are today. He commented that Turkey’s decision to purchase the S-400 missile defense system had a detrimental impact to the U.S.-Turkey relationship and has resulted in fewer friends in Congress. As for the U.S. role, three main factors have contributed to the souring of relations: 1) a minimal response to the attempted 2016 coup, 2) the continued harboring of Gulen on U.S. soil, and 3) support for the terrorist designated Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Despite these challenges, Ambassador Jeffrey noted that where Turkey and the U.S. do share common ground is in their geostrategic interests. However, a Biden administration threatens the Trump-Erdoğan relationship, which through personal means, maintained the shaky bilateral relationship.
Sinan Ülgen approached the topic from the perspective of Turkey’s changing diplomacy and said Turkey’s assertiveness is not a temporary approach, but rather a fixed one. Ülgen noted that Turkey is on the rise on the global stage, ranging from GDP and international aid to diplomatic network and military power. The power vacuum left by the United States as it pulled away from the region made Turkey’s rise possible. Turkey has been able to capitalize on the vacuum as seen by its involvement in the eastern Mediterranean, the Caucasus, and North Africa. Ülgen is of the opinion the Biden administration will need to focus on how to manage Turkey’s rise and pay close attention to whether it will be peaceful and cooperative with its neighbors, allies, and the EU, or if Turkey will continue its aggressive behavior as has been observed in the eastern Mediterranean during the past year.
Sir Peter Westmacott reminded the audience of the longstanding ties between the United Kingdom and Turkey, noting the UK was one of the most willing countries to discuss Turkish accession into the EU in the early 2000s. Westmacott also remarked about the new relationship and opportunities Britain can foster with Turkey in light of Brexit. One area where the UK could leverage its newfound policy independence is on the divided island of Cyprus where the UK is a guarantor power. He also argued the events at the U.S. Capitol on January 6 would increase the Biden administration’s focus on democracy and human rights in U.S. foreign policy. This focus could create a similar atmosphere in Turkey not unlike the one created in the early 2000s with the promise of opening EU accession negotiations. Westmacott said to that end he welcomed recent speeches by the Turkish president recommitting Turkey to a reform agenda.
Link to full discussion: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-biden-administration-and-turkey/
German Marshall Fund
Turkish Public Opinion on Foreign Policy and Security
January 15, 2021
The German Marshall Fund organized a webinar on Turkish public opinion on foreign policy and security based on a recent survey called, “Dimensions of Polarization in Turkey 2020,” January 15, 2021.
The discussion featured Nicholas Danforth, a Non-Resident Senior Research fellow at the Athens, Greece-based ELIAMEP; and Dorothée Schmid, a Senior Research fellow and head of Turkey and Middle East Program at IFRI, Paris, France. Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, director of the Ankara Office of The German Marshall Fund of the United States, served as the moderator. Kadri Taştan, GMF-TOBB Senior fellow at The German Marshall Fund of the United States, provided an overview of the public opinion survey the Fund conducted. Ian Lesser, vice president and executive director of German Marshall Fund in Brussels, provided welcoming remarks.
Kadri Taştan identified the topics analyzed in the survey which included: Turkey’s chosen trauma, big picture, trust in international institutions, conspiracy theories, war and diplomacy, and the EU and partners vs. sources of threat.
Dorothée Schmid highlighted EU-Turkey relations and the main points based in the survey. Political alignment, paranoia, pessimism, and hyper-nationalism are the four observations Schmid takes away from the survey’s results. She also addressed the connection with religious identity and how the strong connection plays into Turkish public opinion of foreign policy approaches with countries that do not share the same religious ties and values. The international awareness of the Turkish population is much more elevated than the level of awareness of the Europeans. Schmid attributes this to using foreign policy as a domestic instrument in Turkey. However, she warned this awareness and interest is not necessarily rational or articulate, therefore creating a contradiction. Schmid concluded by bringing Russia into the discussion. She addressed Russian hyper-presentation in the Turkish landscape, which contributes to an EU obsession with the Russia-Turkey relationship.
Nicholas Danforth stated that Turkish public opinion is extremely polarized aside from a few limited aspects on which the Turks agree on. Interestingly, he noted the survey’s results show that even the opinions on the polarization in Turkey are divided. He said what worries those in Brussels and Washington is that there appears to be a higher public consensus on Turkish behaviors that are alarming to the U.S. and the EU. For example, he explained Turkish policy toward Libya is heavily divided between the MHP and AKP versus the opposition, whereas in the cases of northeast Syria and confronting U.S. backed YPG forces, or Turkey’s confrontation with Greece in the eastern Mediterranean, there is a much greater consensus behind the government.
Link to full discussion: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TU5HYo0Hw3Q
German Marshall Fund
The U.S. Presidential Elections: Implications for the Future of Turkish-American relations?
November 12, 2020
The German Marshall Fund held a discussion on the impact of a Biden presidency on the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and Turkey titled, “The U.S. Presidential Elections: Implications for the Future of Turkish-American Relations?” The event was held November 12, 2020.
The panel included speakers Dr. Ian Lesser, vice president and executive director, The German Marshall Fund of the United States; Dr. Gonul Tol, executive director, Turkish Studies Center, Middle East Institute; Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director, Ankara Office, The German Marshall Fund of the United States. Dr. Kadri Tastan, GMF-TOBB Senior fellow, The German Marshall Fund of the United States served as moderator.
Dr. Tol began the discussion with two possible scenarios playing out in Turkey because of the elections. Because of the high-pressure scenarios Biden would assume in his new role, he may turn to foreign policy to achieve more successes. Therefore, the first scenario is one where Biden will come down on Turkey much harsher than Trump did. Republicans and Democrats have already presented bipartisan condemnation toward Turkey, so added Biden criticism is the worst-case scenario. The second possible scenario is that Biden will focus more on domestic issues, which will drain resources from focusing as much on foreign policy and Turkey. This is not to say that Biden will tolerate the operation of the S-400s. However, it is possible the scenario will remove the spotlight from Turkey’s every action and implement symbolic sanctions rather than severe ones, Dr. Tol opined. No matter which scenario, however, Biden’s higher level of criticism of undemocratic behavior is to be expected.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli presented his remarks in three parts: personalities and politics, policies, and lesser-known events occurring in Ankara. Unluhisarcikli’s assessment on personalities and politics affecting the U.S.-Turkey relationship is that Trump and Erdogan liked each other on an interpersonal level. The same sentiments are not shared by Biden, as he has made explicitly clear. Also, Biden is likely to act more institutionally. The secretaries of State and Defense will be extremely important to the relationship. As negative sentiment in Congress toward Turkey grows, there will be very few left at the highest levels shielding Ankara. As for policies, when it comes to the eastern Mediterranean, Greece and Cyprus, Unluhisarcikli said, “there is no question,” the Biden administration will be more assertive and place increased pressure on Turkey. Cyprus could be a critical player in the near future because of the signals and actions Turkey has been taking toward a two-state solution. Unluhisarcikli noted the Biden administration also is more likely to be pro-Greek rather than pro-Turkey. This approach will create further tensions in the region. Moreover, if Biden chooses to make Russia a priority, this could be detrimental to Turkey through CAATSA. If the U.S. chooses to implement tougher restrictions, this will hurt Turkey, but in the process, it will also work to deter other states from cooperating with Russia. As for Iran, the new JCPOA Biden has been discussing could work in favor of Turkey if the decision is made for them to join. Finally, Unluhisarcikli concluded with three issues of concern in Ankara that have been overlooked: 1) Erdogan’s concern of a U.S. plan to remove him from power, 2) the CAATSA sanctions, and 3) the concern of self-fulfilling prophecy of a strained Biden-Erdogan relationship.
Dr. Ian Lesser framed his comments by stating the relationship between the U.S. and Turkey has always been strained and tumultuous. While he agrees with Dr. Tol that there are enormous domestic challenges Biden must face, he also very well may be one of the most foreign policy-oriented presidents. He reiterated Biden’s focus on democracy will continue to affect Turkey, and how the Administration approaches issues. Dr. Lesser addressed the elevated role NATO will play and how the European Union is more likely to be viewed positively by Biden. The relationship with the EU has the potential to affect the role of Turkey given the trilateral relationship between the U.S.-EU-Turkey. He explained the E.U-Turkey relationship, while dysfunctional, is also unavoidable, as where the U.S.-Turkey relationship is more optional. As Asia looms larger and larger in the American strategic calculus in the broader future, Turkey’s geostrategic importance continues to decrease, Dr. Lesser opined. He also discussed the points of contention in the U.S.-Turkey relationship, which include the S-400s and the eastern Mediterranean.
Link to full discussion:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4xD-MU_ehA&feature=youtu.be